Trading Cards
Pack Odds Calculator
Stated odds are 1:N packs. But if you crack 24 packs at 1:24 odds, what's the actual chance you hit? Spoiler: it's not 100%.
Enter the stated odds.
FAQ
Why isn't 24 packs at 1:24 odds a guaranteed hit? +
Because each pack is an independent trial. The chance of NOT hitting is (1 − 1/24)²⁴ ≈ 36.4%. So you have about a 63.6% chance of at least one hit — not 100%.
How do collation and case hits change this? +
Manufacturers like Panini and Topps often collate cases so big hits fall once per case on average. The math here assumes truly independent packs. For "1 per case" type insertion you should use case count, not pack count.
What about box-loader / case-hit cards? +
Those are guaranteed (one per box or one per case). Don't use this calculator for them — they hit at rate 1.0 per qualifying unit.